Under typical circumstances, President Volodymyr Zelensky would be preparing for a re-election campaign next spring. Experts suggest that an election may not happen, but the idea is making some people in Kyiv worried.
During a full-scale war with Russian missiles hitting the Ukrainian capital and towns being destroyed by artillery attacks, holding a presidential election might seem like a significant distraction and a logistical challenge. However, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has not dismissed this possibility. His five-year term is set to conclude in a few months, and if not for the war, he would either be getting ready to step down or begin his campaign for a second term.
Experts view the chance of holding elections during wartime as highly unlikely. In the event of martial law being imposed in Ukraine, elections would be halted. Nonetheless, there is speculation within Kyiv’s political circles that Mr. Zelensky could consider pursuing an election, which could have significant consequences for his administration, the ongoing conflict, and his political rivals. They are concerned that he might secure another term in a situation where fair and competitive elections are nearly impossible.
The discussion regarding an election is happening while there is increasing pressure on Ukraine to demonstrate its commitment to good governance to Western donors, as emphasized by Mr. Zelensky. Critics argue that holding a one-sided election during wartime could undermine these efforts.
A petition has been signed by 114 prominent Ukrainian civil society activists, opposing the idea of holding an election during wartime. A potential new election could either strengthen Mr. Zelensky’s position if he decides to continue the fight or provide him with protection if settlement talks with Russia negatively affect his popularity and chances of re-election later on.
Mr. Zelensky has expressed his support for elections, but only if they can be verified by international monitors as being free, fair, and inclusive. He has also pointed out several obstacles to holding a vote. On the other hand, his political opponents have been unequivocal in rejecting the idea of elections. They argue that the ongoing war has created too much instability to conduct a proper election, especially considering that elections were originally scheduled for March and April next year, before the Russian invasion.
“The initial stage is achieving victory, and the subsequent phase encompasses various other aspects, including the revitalization of Ukraine’s domestic politics,” noted Serhiy Prytula, an opposition figure and the director of a charity organization supporting the military. Public opinion polls consistently place him among the top three most esteemed leaders in the nation, alongside Mr. Zelensky and the military commander, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny.
Mr. Prytula, a former comedian, had established an exploratory committee to run for Parliament before the full-scale invasion by Russia in February 2022. This follows a similar journey from the entertainment world to politics, as seen with Mr. Zelensky, who portrayed a president on television before winning the presidency in 2019. Currently, Mr. Prytula has suspended all political activities due to the ongoing war. The office he had rented for his parliamentary campaign now serves as a charity headquarters.
The Biden administration and European governments supporting Ukraine militarily have refrained from making public statements about an election. However, the idea gained more attention when Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican from South Carolina, suggested that Ukraine should proceed with a vote despite the ongoing war.
Senator Graham stated during a visit to Kyiv in August that Ukraine should pursue two objectives simultaneously. He emphasized the importance of conducting free and fair elections, even in the midst of an armed conflict.
For Ukraine to hold elections, it would be necessary to either temporarily lift martial law in the case of parliamentary elections or amend the law for presidential elections.
Mr. Zelensky has pointed out a significant challenge, which is the necessity to guarantee that Ukrainians residing in areas under Russian control can cast their votes without facing any negative consequences. He stated during a conference in Kyiv last month, “We are prepared for this. It’s not about democracy; it’s purely a matter of ensuring security.”
The leader of Ukraine has suggested that online voting could offer a potential solution.
Among the former Soviet Union states, Ukraine stands out as the most populous country to successfully transition to a democratic form of government. While Ukraine’s criminal justice system has faced issues with corruption, and the privatization of state-owned assets has been poorly managed, its elections have consistently been recognized as free and fair by international observers. Since gaining independence in 1991, Ukrainians have elected six presidents.
Peter Erben, the Ukraine director of the International Foundation for Electoral Systems, a pro-democracy organization funded by Western governments, emphasized that Ukraine’s commitment to democracy remains unquestionable, even if elections need to be postponed due to the ongoing conflict.
Ukrainian politics often center on parties created by well-known individuals rather than specific policy stances. These include Fatherland, led by Yulia Tymoshenko, Ukraine’s most prominent female political figure; the Punch, led by Vitali Klitschko, who serves as the mayor of Kyiv and is a former boxer; the Voice, led by Svyatoslav Vakarchuk, a famous rock star; and Mr. Zelensky’s Servant of the People party, named after a television show.
Military veterans are anticipated to have a significant impact on Ukrainian politics in the upcoming elections, both as voters and potential candidates who may contest the existing political establishment.
Conducting elections before the conflict concludes could secure parliamentary seats for the current political parties, including those led by Mr. Zelensky, while military personnel are still actively serving and ineligible to participate in the electoral process.
Olha Aivazovska, the director of OPORA, a Ukrainian civil society organization overseeing elections, stated that a planned election is not essential for our democracy. She pointed out that currently, refugees, frontline soldiers, and people in occupied territory lack the opportunity to cast their votes.
In the midst of the ongoing conflict, holding an election could actually weaken Mr. Zelensky’s legitimacy rather than strengthen it, according to some experts.
Even those who support the idea of an election have concerns about the potential for Mr. Zelensky to consolidate power. Oleg Soskin, an economist and adviser to a former Ukrainian president, has urged for elections despite the war, fearing that Mr. Zelensky might seize more authority under martial law. However, this perspective is not widely held in Kyiv. While most of Mr. Zelensky’s political rivals have refrained from harsh criticism during the war, they argue that holding a vote at this time would be unjust.